2011 proved to be a challenging year for investors as the world continued to adjust to the European sovereign debt crisis. Whilst the past always provides us with much to ponder, 2012 is well underway and our focus now turns to the macroeconomic outlook and the likely impact on markets. Whilst we’ve seen some classic summer headlines (such as the "World Bank's crisis warning" from the Sydney Morning Herald / The Age on 18 January 2011) as the World Bank and the IMF revised world growth forecasts down, there is reason for cautious optimism. The downgrades really should have come as no surprise, as these forecasters were “catching up” on European developments in the last quarter of 2011. For the record, the World Bank now expects global growth to come in around 2.5% for 2012 and 3.1% for 2013, with the IMF at 3.3% and 3.9% respectively.
The attached article from Shane Oliver at AMP Capital encapsulates our views on the year ahead and we thought it was worth reading if you’re keen to ‘crystal ball’ what may happen in 2012.
Click here for the full article by Shane Oliver.